America’s global withdrawal leaves dangerous vacuums
Even our own hemisphere slips away as our attention turns inward
In times of domestic stress, it is natural for people to reduce their global aspirations, to bring one’s attention back towards one’s own shores. Americans are often divided between the two extremes of an isolationist foreign policy where we mostly stick to ourselves and leave others to tend to their business; and the nation-building interventions of South Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Our lack of success in the latter three adventures gives succor to those who would advocate isolationism, but the reality is an inward-looking America creates an ever more dangerous world. It turns out we are still the indispensable nation when it comes to helping restrain some of the more troublesome regimes around the world. We cannot safely close our eyes to the world’s tyrants now any more than we could in World Wars I and II. In just three short years, our weakening posture globally has created a vacuum now filled with murderous intrusions, threats and war.
There are many despots and dictators, mercenaries and terrorists who would take their neighbor’s land and treasure and do harm to their people. While we cannot police the entire world ourselves, our presence overseas in places like Korea, Europe and the Middle East serves as a brake on the worst intentions of our adversaries and those who would foment mayhem in the regions. Though we take much flak, America’s global presence has helped maintain the peace for most of the nearly 80 years since the victory in WW II.
The 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal marked a sea change which the world noticed
When President Biden abruptly withdrew our military from Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan in 2021, leaving behind billions of dollars’ worth of equipment, vehicles, weapons and supplies, it was an important signal to our adversaries around the world. If America were willing to cut and run in such a rapid and disorderly manner from a position we held for 20 years, it seemed unlikely we would be willing to return any time soon to help maintain order. This retreat from a key strategic military position, coming at a time the new administration was focusing on domestic issues, was a go signal for our enemies.
It was barely six months later that Vladimir Putin moved into Ukraine, and another 18 months when Iran moved on Israel via its Hamas proxies. China is licking her chops longingly across the Taiwan Straits at its potential prey in Taiwan but has not yet moved. While the U.S. has responded in some fashion to both hot wars underway, it is instructive to note that both broke out after our signal of retreat in Afghanistan. We now have two aircraft carrier strike groups and a nuclear submarine in the Middle East, yet our soldiers and ships in the region are still being fired upon with little response from our forces.
Troubles in our hemisphere mount as China and Iran move in
Yet these conflicts are only the most visible among the major powers we face. Equally important is the disintegration of the moderate pro-American regimes in our own hemisphere of Central and South America, in favor of China and Iran-friendly leaders. Both China and Iran recognize that a weakened and distracted USA leaves an opening for infiltration on our side of the world, and they are not sitting idly by. This opportunity may not come again. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Nicaragua, Uruguay, Venezuela and Panama have all opened relations with China including taking loans and, in some cases, military cooperation. Our State Department has been mostly absent as China has infiltrated the region. Iranian proxy Hezbollah is also active in Argentina and Brazil and continues to spread its tentacles.
The jewel of Panama at risk
Panama is a small but valuable jewel, an example of the threat we face by inattention to the region. Panama has been a critical strategic asset for the U.S. since the opening of the canal in 1914, providing easy access for our military and commercial ships between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, replacing the treacherous and lengthy voyage around Cape Horn. We ceded ownership and control of the canal to Panama in 1999, retaining the right to use military force if necessary to keep the canal open. Since Panama switched diplomatic relations from Taiwan to Beijing in 2017, China has invested time and resources in the country. The present Panamanian government has subsequently thrown western investment into turmoil with a recent ruling questioning the award of the mining concession for an enormous and productive copper mine in the country. The stock of the mining company involved has declined 63% in the six weeks since the surprise.
Panama is perhaps even more critical now as the choke point and access route for the mass migration of foreigners into the United State via the Darien Gap linking Panama to Colombia and South America. Hundreds of thousands of migrants from all over the world have traveled to various parts of South America, and once there reach an established path through the Gap and into Panama. What was once a treacherous multiple-day risk of life has been refined and modernized into a conveyor belt of humanity where everyone along the route gets paid. This includes governments and guides along the route to Panama, on buses through Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala to Mexico, where more buses and trains take them to the U.S. border.
The flow of immigrants through the Gap was cut off during the early Covid outbreak, so the Panamanian government has shown it can be done, if the will is there to do so. The fact is that human trafficking from around the world to the U.S.– Mexico border has become the most lucrative smuggling trade in the world. You have nihilist non-government organizations and those who would destabilize the U.S. working right alongside the drug cartels and gangs to keep the Darien Gap open and flowing. Panama could shut it off at any time with proper guidance and support.
Venezuela threating its neighbor for oil
Meanwhile, the collapsed regime of Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela is responsible for the largest number of migrants heading to America of any single country. Venezuela is emptying out. But that’s not enough for Maduro- he is now threatening an armed attack on his smaller neighbor, Guyana. In 2015, Exxon discovered an enormous oil basin off the coast of Guyana which promises to make the America-friendly nation a major oil producer and raise the fortunes of its people. Maduro wants the oil for himself and is ratcheting up threats of military intervention.
Were America in its typically strong position, such a hostile venture would never be contemplated so close to our shores. Maintaining peace and order in our own hemisphere has always been a priority and a minimum expectation of the people. These are merely two of our southern neighbors under threat, yet their stories are not unique. Such a vacuum we have created, allowing chaos and disorder to rise all around. Within this, however, are feint signs of a possible turn for the better. Voters in Argentina, the Netherlands and even New Zealand have stated they are fed up with these conditions and looking for change. Green shoots among an impending year of turmoil, we’ll discuss those next.