Enter Michelle- Republicans risk playing the fool once more
Choosing Donald Trump may well usher in the 4th and 5th terms of Barack Obama
I wrote on this subject here nearly a year ago, but I am reviving it with more urgency now. I was hopeful then that we might move past Donald Trump and give America a real choice, and I still hope so. But America is hurtling towards a 2024 election with the two most objectional standard bearers in memory, perhaps ever. The American people do not agree on much these days, but there is unity in the desire to avoid a 2020 rematch between aging Presidents Biden and Trump. Those who disliked Donald Trump still dislike him, and many who supported him previously are ready to move on. But Joe Biden has done his best to rise to Trumpian levels of rejection by the people. A difficult challenge to be sure, but it appears he is succeeding as the unchecked level of illegal immigration spreads throughout the country and becomes impossible to conceal. The Secretary of Defense goes into the hospital last week while we are navigating two wars and fails to inform the President? Worse yet, nobody even misses him for three days. What kind of operation are they running over there? Our beloved system of governance provides free choice for the people, so how do we avoid such a hideous contest from repeating?
In ordinary times, when a large majority believe the nation is on the wrong track as now, the ruling party is summarily dismissed at the next election for the alternative approach. One would imagine the Republicans would have an advantage approaching this November, but we have the omnipresent Donald Trump standing like a bright orange obstacle in the path of progress. If the Republicans choose not to move him out of the path, and the Democrats’ repeated prosecutions are similarly ineffective, it seems likely to usher in the 4th and 5th terms of Barack Obama.
I say this not to denigrate former President Obama’s wife Michelle, for I am suggesting she may even serve two terms as the first African American female President of the United States. For those who suggest she would not want that, it would disrupt the idyllic life she now enjoys, I suggest you read that sentence again, after the word “first.” Do you think she, or anyone of similar ambition, would turn down what could be a cake walk to the White House for that achievement?
Ball is in the Republicans’ court
Given the trying circumstances of today, if the Republicans were to nominate a reasonable candidate with a moderate temperament, good track record and some humility, that candidate would likely defeat an ailing President Biden in November. It should be a relatively easy task for an opposing party. The Republican Party in the Donald Trump era, however, is struggling to make a good decision only days before the first caucus votes in Iowa.
There is an adage that says getting Republicans to agree on things is akin to herding cats. Democrats can be counted upon to remain in formation almost always, but Republicans love to debate their differences, and often not to their advantage. As we face the revolting prospect of a 2020 rematch, and the seeming ease with which it may be avoided, I was struck by a little herding cats analogy.
There was a lovely house and garden where mice infiltrated and nested and made themselves a general nuisance. The cats of the house understood what a problem the mice presented, and they were each well equipped to be helpful in the solution of eradication. But rather than unite and attack the mouse problem as a cohesive unit, collectively expressing their will on the destructive mice, they bickered among themselves about the best specific tactics to employ. A frontal assault, or a flush-and-ambush approach? The cats spent so much time debating how they might solve the problem, it was never solved, and the mice grew plump and happy.
Sounds a bit like America today. There is broad agreement that we are on the wrong path, and regardless of your leanings, that President Biden is not in good enough condition to lead us for another five years from today. Most polls show President Trump winning the election were it to be held today. With one large caveat.
The Republicans go first, advantage to the Dems
The Republican National Convention will be held in July, one month prior to the Democrat Convention. This works to the Democrats’ critical advantage, as they will know whom they need to defeat prior to making their own selection. Let’s play out the “Trump wins the Republican nomination” scenario. In this instance, the Democrats’ dream comes true, and the election becomes all about Donald Trump. January 6 insurrection, the ‘crimes’, the behaviors, the petty insults and narcissism, all the baggage of Trump becomes the litmus test for the election. All the resurrected hatred towards him supercharged for one more run. Shoved to the background would be much if any consideration of the state of affairs in the nation nor the reasons for the discontent in the polling.
Yet conditions will likely be difficult at election time, with perhaps 2-3 million more immigrants to be absorbed, the uncertain outcome of the wars, and an uneven economy fighting off the effects of inflation. Even running against Trump, the Democrats will need a new candidate to assure a victory. This is the big not-so-hidden secret in the party. So whom? Kamala Harris is next in line as Vice President, but sadly her race and gender played a large publicly acknowledged role in her selection by candidate Biden in 2020. Also tied so closely to the Biden administration’s unpopularity, it is universally recognized that she would not prevail in a Presidential election even against Donald Trump. Nonetheless, I think it will be nearly impossible for the Democrats to pass over Vice President Harris in favor of a Caucasian male such as California Governor Gavin Newsome. That would alienate a portion of the African American and female voting segments at a challenging time for Democrats. Support among African Americans and Hispanics is moving away from the Democrat party already due in part to the open immigration policy, which disproportionately impacts their prospects.
Enter Michelle and the distancing from present policies
The Democrats created this dilemma for themselves when race and gender became the standard for the 2020 Vice-Presidential selection. Michelle Obama kills all the birds, checks all the boxes, and possesses the kind of style and presentation that could readily distance herself (and her husband’s policies) from the disaster most people feel is in place now. Plausible deniability for what is taking place, despite many feeling that it is Barack Obama orchestrating much of current policy from the background, in essence his third term. He is the only modern President who retained a residence in Washington DC after leaving office, where he holds court with a myriad of former advisors, many of whom inhabit the Biden administration. Susan Rice for example, was President Obama’s Ambassador to the U.N. and then National Security Advisor in his second term. She was appointed President Biden’s top domestic policy advisor before resigning last Spring just prior to his announcement of plans to run again in 2024.
Michelle’s smooth demeanor, commanding presence and confidence would serve her well in the short few months of campaigning post-convention. A fawning press, compliant to her wishes, and memories of the relative calm of the Obama years would allow an easy campaign season. She would present a very formidable challenge, especially against the assured chaos of a second lame-duck term for President Trump.
Warning for complacent Republicans
Republicans need to shake themselves out of their blood lust before performing the act of self-immolation in choosing Donald Trump again. They are justifiably angered at the unbalanced treatment delivered to President Trump, and in their anger, many seek revenge. Any pretense, however, that Donald Trump will be running against an aged Joe Biden in November must be discarded. Do not fall for the ruse that beating Joe Biden is all that need be done. Understand who the real opponent will be, it will be someone unconnected to the present unhappy situation in the country, and with a story of calm and a return to peace to share. The Obama Era, part two.
For their part, there are candidates available who have a positive story to tell, with great track records and a devotion to the country, not self. Living in Florida, I do not know of anyone here who chooses Trump over DeSantis. We know his governance and story. I fear most Republicans do not know DeSantis’ story, his upbringing and his lifetime of growth and achievement. The media certainly do not want you to know. If you know it, it becomes extremely hard not to support him. If the Republicans select DeSantis, the election will be a referendum on the Democrats and their performance these last four years, while providing a sound alternative who builds consensus and support from formerly Democrat constituencies. A discussion of policies and prescriptions could ensue, not of vitriol and name calling. That is a discussion we all need. The time to decide approaches, beginning next week in Iowa.