Iran shows its hand to the world
Endless unspeakable depravity may lead to an opportunity for civilized people to unite
For 75 years, since the establishment of the State of Israel, the first Jewish state in 2,000 years, the Middle East has been a consistent cauldron of conflict globally. Many Arabs of the region took great umbrage and have been trying to destabilize and/ or overthrow and/ or destroy Israel ever since. For years, Americans had a vague sense that all Arabs in the region were united in their opposition to Israel, with only varying degrees of hatred of the Jews. Only more recently did we understand that the Arab world itself is very divided, with Sunni and Shiites hating each other almost as much as they hate Jews. That distinction has led to the opportunity to find a solution for peace, for normalizing relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors. This is a requirement for civilization to continue much longer in the nuclear age.
We discovered over time that the theocratic mullahs of Iran are rather isolated within the region as the leader of the Shia, a minority among Arabs. Its arch enemy Saudi Arabia is the leader of the Sunni, who comprise roughly 85% of Arabs and includes Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, and the UAE. That is plenty for a coalition of the willing against Iran. Iran is importantly the only country in the region calling for the destruction of Israel and the U.S. ‘Death to Israel, death to America’ is a common refrain within the Iranian parliament.
Ever since 1979, when youthful Islamic revolutionaries overwhelmed and occupied the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, taking 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days, the resulting Islamic Republic of Iran has been among the United States’ most fervent enemies. The fanatic government installed by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini dedicated itself to the destruction of Israel and western ways. It is widely viewed as the #1 state sponsor of terrorism globally. Decades of financial support for the anti-Israeli Hamas and Hezbollah terror groups has led to the combustible situation surrounding Israel which has now exploded in a manner previously unseen since the pogroms of the 1940s.
The barbaric Hamas sneak attack on a Saturday morning on villages and settlements outside the Gaza strip in southern Israel has shocked the civilized world. The wanton killing of women and children and the elderly, with dozens taken hostage, has rightly provoked revulsion and condemnation. The manner of killing and mutilation resembled the darkest days of the ISIS caliphate of recent times.
Is this attack simply another version of the many battles between Israel and adjacent terrorists? Whenever the Islamist community has needed to stoke world outrage against Israel, they know a little pinprick attack will draw a reaction larger in force, followed by Israel’s isolation among the Arab world and Europe. Rinse and repeat. I am afraid, however, there is a substantial chance that this is something more than the usual, as the mullahs may sense their time is running out one way or the other.
Time running out for the mullahs?
It has always been difficult to understand the rationale for the Obama- Biden administration’s outreach to Iran in 2015. Among other things, Iran was responsible for the death and maiming of thousands of American soldiers in Iraq with their lethal IEDs supplied to our foes. For unknown reasons, they decided that the Iranians needed to be acknowledged and welcomed, not shunned. They engineered an agreement in 2015 whereby in exchange for our ability to monitor and oversee Iranian nuclear development, we would ease sanctions and send over more than one billion dollars in cash to the mullahs. What sovereign regimes require cash for their operations? Perhaps when the operation is funding grass roots acts of terror? Of course, Iran then restricted access to our monitors and continued their illicit nuclear development anyway, away from prying eyes. A secondary impact of Iranian outreach was Saudi Arabian consternation. Why is America reaching out to our sworn enemy and the enemy of Israel and the west?
The subsequent U.S. administration clearly identified the destructive nature of the Iranian leadership, with its dedication to the annihilation of one of our closest allies and quest for general instability. We pulled out of the Iranian agreement in 2018, placing Iran’s mullahs in the appropriate bucket, the one with adversaries. Is Saudi Arabia pristine? No, but in a time of war we allied with Josef Stalin against a greater evil. It is a wise course.
Upon taking office in 2021, the Biden administration, staffed largely with the same Obama-era foreign policy personnel, immediately launched into an effort to renew and update the 2015 deal. This also remains inexplicable, and the President has never enunciated the rationale for such a renewal. Most people understand that dealing in good faith with Iran’s present leadership is much like the old fable of the scorpion and the frog.
A frog looking for a place to cross the river came upon a scorpion. The scorpion asked the frog for a ride across the river, but the frog warily replied “no, I am afraid you will sting me and kill me as we cross.” The scorpion reasoned that he couldn’t possibly do that or he himself would drown in the river as well. Convinced, the frog offered his back for the ride. Halfway across the river, the scorpion stung the frog, and as they were both going under the water, the frog wailed “why, oh why did you do that?” “I am a scorpion, that’s what I do.”
Our leadership seeks a deal with Saudi Arabia now, threatening Iran
Fast forward to 2023. Angered by the U.S. outreach to Iran, as well as early public snubs from the President, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince MBS has repeatedly ignored President Biden’s requests to produce more oil and thereby lower gasoline prices in advance of the 2024 elections. The President sold off half of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2021- 22 for the midterm elections, so that is not a viable option again.
How to soften MBS’ resolve? The administration has recently tried to broker a peace, cooperation and nuclear development deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, establishing formal relations between them, something hinted at with the Abraham Accords of 2020 between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain. In return for acknowledging and assisting in Saudi’s need for nuclear power capability in part to counter Iran, and increased Israeli trade and investment, they would in turn increase oil production. It is the promise of this deal between the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia that would open the gates for other Sunni countries to join and has put Iran on high alert.
If there were a cooperation deal struck with Israel and Saudi Arabia, that would likely be the death knell for Iran as a leader in the region. Maybe existential to the mullahs. Other moderates like Egypt and Jordan may join, and Iran would be isolated. This is the worst possible outcome for Iran. So, Iran engineers this heinous horrific attack which has drawn near universal condemnation, performing acts of such savage barbarism on women and children as to be inhuman.
Perhaps Israel, rather than immediately bulldozing Gaza and attempt an annihilation with its attendant civilian casualties, should try to rally the U.S. and Saudi Arabia with world opinion and attempt to accelerate their agreement and solidify the forces of peace against the Iranian butchers. We must NOT let Iran succeed in driving this deal into the ground, uniting the fractured Arab world again against Israel. If this turns out to be more a Pearl Harbor moment than a 9/11 for Israel, and there comes a time we must confront Iran, we do it with a solid team which includes its Arab neighbors. We may not have the luxury of time for that, so haste is of the essence.