What have we learned in Ukraine?
The United States’ 10-year project there approaches a tipping point
We wrote in some detail in March about Ukraine’s history and the circumstances which led us to this point now entering a potential third winter of war. We called then for an immediate negotiated settlement to the madness. With little real strategic importance to the west, one need wonder why and how Ukraine has become a black hole into which billions of dollars of arms flow and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, some conscripted unwillingly, die. The issue is now dividing Europe and America as our economies soften and conditions become more difficult for average citizens.
Poking the Russians was considered sport among many in the U.S. military/ intel communities steeped in decades of Cold War politics, and Ukraine’s border with Russia meant mischief there could be meaningful. But this long slog without an achievable objective is coming close to sapping Ukraine of its future, for which we would then be responsible.
Hunter lands a big gig in 2014
Recall as U.S. influence was growing in Ukraine during the runup to the 2014 U.S.-backed Ukraine government overthrow, Vice President Biden’s son, Hunter, was appointed to a $1 million per year position on the Board of Directors of Burisma, the Ukrainian natural gas behemoth. With no experience in the energy business nor identifiable value to the company, the appointment caught the attention of higher ups in the Obama administration, who nonetheless allowed it to stand. Future events would reveal however, his hiring would become a centerpiece of what is turning out to be an historic bribery and influence peddling adventure at the highest levels of the U.S. government.
Hunter’s father the Vice President forced the firing of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General as a condition for U.S. financial aid in 2016. The prosecutor had been investigating corruption at Burisma among other companies. When this news became public partially due to the former Vice President’s public boasting in 2018, a narrative was launched that Vice President Biden was doing official policy of the U.S. government with the agreement of the European Union. More recently, however, evidence has revealed neither the U.S. State Department nor the European Commission were upset with the prosecutor in any way. In fact, memos indicated both groups were pleased with the actions of Prosecutor Shokin.
On to 2022- Russia cannot roll over anything
After the initial 2014 government overthrow and Russian annexation of Crimea, it was mostly quiet on the Russia/ Ukraine front during the Trump administration, other than numerous fake Russia collusion probes consuming the oxygen in Washington. Putin was fearful enough of Trump responses, and Trump respectful of Russia’s legitimate security concerns as it weakens longer term. Russia is not blessed with defensible borders protected by vast oceans. It is hemmed in by potential foes and its access to the seas are few, with many in inhospitable places inefficient for global trade. It is a weakening dying former monster. Putin wished to maintain a sense of dignity for the past power of the Soviet Union, not to be seen as a weak and shrinking once-formidable relic.
It was therefore important to Russian status not to have a new NATO member immediately adjacent to its borders. This became of more urgent concern to Putin in 2004 when the former Soviet Republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined NATO, along with former Warsaw Pact allies Bulgaria and Romania. Pushing Ukraine to join was judged a red line by Putin. Nonetheless, many of the same old hands in the State Department advocated for more agitation towards Ukraine membership, angering Putin. I will not say it’s the fault of the U.S. that Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, but I will say events have made it clear that Putin cannot possibly have designs on greater portions of the former Soviet Empire. Thus, the case that he was simply trying to stave off further threats gains credence.
The evidence I cite is the initial incompetence/ lack of will and capabilities to get to Kyiv in the immediate days of the invasion, followed by mostly defensive buildup since that time. The lack of coordination and capabilities against a Ukrainian defending force surprised many in the west, and calls into question any intent to take the entire country or threaten others. In the ensuing 18 months, Russia has done little more than build layers of defense fortifications to hold the land bridge to Crimea created in the southeast portion of the country. They have recently gone begging to Iran and now to North Korea for drones and artillery to replace their depleted stocks. Their military conscripts have proven lacking in training and skills and motivations. This is no grand defense of the Motherland harkening back to Stalingrad in 1942. A world power? Hardly, yet they have a massive nuclear arsenal which renders them important in that manner.
Bloody stalemate bleeding Ukraine dry
It is estimated that half of Ukraine’s 40 million citizens have left the country; hundreds of thousands of their best young men have been killed or maimed in the brutal close quarters World War I style combat. Half of those who remain are pensioners. The country is being hollowed out. Ukraine has no air superiority, making any real advances against the fortified defenses of a far larger foe a fanciful dream. Enemy drones and missiles have a field day with the advanced tanks being offered from Europe, and very soon the American Abrams tanks will be targets as well. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, that is expel them from their lands, without our assistance and arms, and we are giving them nothing near what is needed. Of course, we don’t want a war with Russia, so what are we doing indeed? Does our leadership know or explain to us?
We are doing what we can to bleed Russia dry while sacrificing the people and the country of Ukraine, which will then be our responsibility? We are forcing Russia to ally with our other enemies to sustain this carnage. For what? This ruse that Russian victory will embolden China and our other foes is a canard, a rationalization. There did not need to be a Russian ‘victory’ if we were not so set on rubbing their noses in the mud via our Ukrainian spear carriers. What emboldens China is our lack of seriousness and the idea we are still fixated on the dying Russian bear. Thankfully China has real problems of its own, but we are helping them enormously by our focus and resource expenditures in Ukraine. Time to marshal our resources for the real battles ahead, and for leadership in this country who can articulate and execute a cogent foreign and military policy.